英國脫歐恐怕會是場無人能倖免的大災難，而其可能造成的傷害亦難以估計。它就像連環車禍一樣，每輛車只知道自己撞了車，其他車也撞了上來，但唯有從空中俯瞰，才能得知這場車禍事實上牽連了超過7億4300萬輛車，每輛車代表著生活在歐盟內的每個人。而英國脫歐所造成的傷害並不限於歐盟，「後真相政治」現象可能成為在全球民主國家間散播的傳染病。部分國家雖然可能不受英國脫歐的直接衝擊，但傷害恐怕更甚。

脫歐陣營的領袖不是在說謊，就是能力不足。他們對於脫歐將省下鉅額費用的承諾，已經證明無法履行，而他們所聲稱為維持歐盟會員資格而支付的金額，同樣也證明是誇大不實的。這場公投充分展現脫歐支持者的種族主義觀點，以及期盼回歸大英帝國昔日榮耀的傲慢思維。

這些非主流觀點若不是因爲造成了嚴重傷害，其實也只不過是具攻擊性的幻想。根據報導，許多人藉由投票支持脫歐表達抗議，只因爲他們無法完全理解這場爭論背後的真相。我想知道當英鎊幣值始終無法回升，而英國人未來退休後不能到歐盟氣候相對溫暖地區養老時，會有多少人後悔當初做下這個決定。而當人民感覺自身經濟狀況變差時，執政者亦將於下次大選面臨嚴峻挑戰。這些問題已經開始浮現，包括英鎊持續走貶、進口商品價格及油價均已上揚。

由於投票支持脫歐的英國人僅些微過半，英國政府傾向採行「硬脫歐」的作法實在令人驚訝，尤其當特定年齡族群及部分地區其實有多數人是反對脫歐的。

延伸閱讀：英國提出脫歐白皮書　國內分歧未見緩和

做為一個出生至今都是歐盟成員的人，我和許多人ㄧ樣，都有強烈的「失去認同感」。歐洲希望以和平與合作爲訴求，化解其內部差異的合作計畫，是超越國家疆界與主權的理想境界，而國家和主權的概念，其實早已因全球化趨勢而弱化。在1980年代，歐盟法律使英國人免於「柴契爾主義」過度極端的發展，然而，未來對英國傷害最大的，將是因為加入歐洲單一市場所造成的損失，而這卻是柴契爾夫人在歐盟事務上所堅信的領域。主張這些損失可藉由與其他國家簽署新貿易協定獲得抵消的想法，雖具企圖心，但卻是不可行的。新協定的議訂和業者的調適都是曠日費時的大工程，而在此同時，許多銷售商品或服務至歐盟的業者，可能早已蒙受嚴重損失。

做爲一個追求國家最大利益的英國人，我預期歐盟將極力與英國達成一項協議，使英國接下來所享的權益，遠不如其原本具有歐盟會員資格時的待遇，以免其他會員國藉機有樣學樣、群起效尤。如果歐盟會員國真的藉由脫歐得利，那將會使歐盟的未來危機重重。歐盟堅持英國須接受人員自由移動與繼續參與單一市場二者不可分割的作法是正確的，英國仍然需要高度專業與低度專業的勞工，且其產業具有供應鍊遍及歐盟各國及專業勞工移動性高的特性，因此，限制人員自由移動的政策，將危害英國整體產業的發展。

移民議題主導了有關是否投票支持脫歐的爭論，保守陣營接連的活動，都是以移民議題做為爭取選票的訴求。這些年以來，由於政治人物意圖型塑「移民將占據鄉村地區，並占用大量教育與醫療資源」的主張，使得英國大眾，尤其是小城市與鄉間地區的人民，已形成對移民感到恐慌的氛圍。

事實上，移民只占了小城市或鄉村地區學校與醫療服務非常低的比例，而且，新移民偏好居住在大城市，因為在那裡較容易找到低薪的工作。英國的小城市和鄉間，其實是移民最少，卻最怕移民的地區。

脫歐的風險與損失將與日俱增

在「硬脫歐」之後，英國將不能再無償使用歐盟內的醫療服務，伴隨而來學費與生活開支的增加及簽證問題，將使歐洲學生赴英國進修的意願降低。而這也將衝擊英國的頂尖大學，因為這些學校將不能再獲得歐盟的資助，進而導致英國無法吸引學者前往從事研究，長期而言亦將加速英國大學聲譽的下跌，而失去與全球頂尖大學競爭的能力。

就歐盟勞工的工作許可而言，由於簽證申辦程序可能更爲繁複，無疑將降低英國公司雇用非英國籍勞工的意願。而由於雇用專業勞工的成本增加，歐盟公司將不會在英國設立大型辦公室，或將考慮縮小既有的辦公室規模。

簡而言之，當原本藉由脫歐獲得更多利益的承諾，以及魚與熊掌兼得的可能性均逐漸消失，相對的，脫歐的風險與損失亦將與日俱增。

※作者Oliver Wells曾為英國自由民主黨沃金鎮議員，國際自由聯盟青年組織副主席／Emily Wells為英國國際關係和法律學位雙碩士，曾任助理律師。

投稿《上報》原文如下：

BREXIT is a disaster！

In fact BREXIT is a disaster of such huge proportions I doubt anyone can be far enough away from it, to really see how much damage it will do. It is like a multiple car pile-up, where each car only knows it has crashed and someone has crashed into it. It will take a view from the air to see the car crash inthis case involves more than 743 million cars, one for each person living in the EU. The damage that BREXIT has caused is not even limited to the EU. The post truth politics phenomena could become a disease spread around the democracies of the world. There will certainly be opportunities for countries not directly impacted by BREXIT, but I fear the damage will be far worse.
 

The leaders of the BREXIT campaign were either lying to us or incompetent. Promises they made about how much money could be saved by leaving, have proven impossible to fulfil as surely many of them knew they would be. Claims about how much money was spent on EU membership were proven to be equally exaggerated. As the referendum campaign unfolded it became clear that some BREXIT supporters had racist views and others arrogant ideas based on returning the UK to past imperial glories. These minority ideas would be little more than offensive fantasy, if they had not done so much harm. Many people were reported to have voted for BREXIT as a protest, simply because they were unable to fully comprehend the truth behind the debate. I wonder how many will come to regret it when Sterling fails to return to previous highs and they are neither entitled to retire to warmer locations within the EU, nor able to afford it. It is certain that when people start to feel less wealthy, governments will struggle to survive the next election. This is already starting to happen as a result of the current weakness in Sterling. Prices at supermarkets are rising for imported goods and petrol costs have already risen.
 

Only a slim majority of people in the UK voted for BREXIT. This makes it even more astonishing that the government appears to be opting for a so called Hard BREXIT. There are age groups and regions of the UK where a majority did not vote for BREXIT at all. 

As someone who has lived his entirely life as a member of the European Union, I like many others feel a strong sense of lost identity. The European project and the belief in putting aside petty differences in the name of peace and cooperation was an ideal above small minded obsessions with national borders and a sense of sovereignty that in reality have been eroded by globalisation anyway. In the 1980s it was EU law that protected the rights of British people from a potentially more extreme form of Thatcherism. However, it is the loss of access to the European Single Market that will most hurt the UK. An area of the EU that Margaret Thatcher firmly believed in. The idea that its loss can be offset by new trade deals with other countries is ambitious, but foolish. It will take many years for these deals to come into place and for business to adjust to them, in the meantime many business selling products and services to the EU could suffer a real loss of business. 

Even as a British person wanting the best for my country, I can see it is vital that the EU strikes a deal with the UK that is vastly inferior to membership of the EU, lest other member states seek to benefit from asking for the same arrangements. If there is seen to be a benefit to leaving the EU, the very future of the EU would be at risk. The EU is correct to make free movement and access to the single market indivisible. The UK will still need highly skilled and low skilled workers. Restrictions on the freedom of movement will deter many, making BREXIT a disaster for a whole range of British industries with supply chains across the EU and industries with highly mobile skilled workers.

Immigration has dominated the debate on whether to vote for BREXIT. Successive Conservative election campaigns have focused on immigration as a method to gain votes. Throughout the years, the public, especially those from smaller cities and rural areas, have developed fears, fed by politicians that “immigrants” will take over the country, as a result jamming education and health services. 
 

In fact, immigrants have only accounted for a very low percentage of schooling or health service in smaller cities and rural areas. Furthermore, new immigrants prefer to stay in bigger cities where they will find low-paid jobs more easily. In fact it is the areas of the UK with the fewest immigrants that are typically most fearful of them.

After a hard BREXIT Britons will likely no longer be able to use medical services within EU for free. It will discourage European students to seek higher education in UK because of higher tuition fees, living costs and visa issues. There will also be a huge impact on top universities in the UK because thesewill no longer receive EU funds, making the UK a less attractive country for scholars to come to work. This could accelerate a decline in the reputation of UK universities in the long run and will make it harder for these universities to compete with top universities around the world.
 

In terms of the work permit for EU workers, it will almost certainly discourage UK companies from hiring non British workers due to potentially complicated visa procedures. EU companies will be unlikely to set up a large office in the UKand will be considering downsizing offices in the UK due to increasing costs of hiring workers from a smaller pool of talented staff.
 

In short while the many promised benefits of BREXIT and the possibility to “have our cake and eat it”, seem to be shrivelling away, the risks and losses are becoming more tangible each and every day.

【上報徵稿】

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